Wednesday 8th February 2017
A civil expert witness: life and death - watch video (Youtube)
Extreme Value Theory: An Impact Case Study for International Shipping Standards - watch video (YouTube)
Prof. Jonathan Tawn, Lancaster University
Abstract/Description: Research on extreme value methods proved critical in determining the conclusions of the UK High Court’s investigation of the sinking of the M.V. Derbyshire (the UK’s largest ship lost at sea) and identified that design standards for hatch covers of ocean-going carriers needed to be increased by 35%. This new level was then set as a new worldwide mandatory standard. This talk describes my involvement in this work starting with the estimation of the probability of the M.V. Derbyshire having sunk from a structural failure, resulting from large wave impacts on the ship, for each of a range of possible sea-state and vessel conditions; through experiences of presenting evidence to the High Court; and subsequent work aimed at setting new design standards for ocean-going carriers.
Prof Jane Hutton, The University of Warwick
I frequently provide expert witness reports on estimates of life expectancy, and occasionally on other matters such as side effects of drugs and putatively avoidable deaths.
If a compensation case arises from an injury, which might be caused by medical error or an industrial or traffic accident, the
award will often depend on the expected reduction in life expectancy. I shall discuss approaches to estimating life expectancy when factors such as smoking or alcohol consumption have to be considered as well as the main motivation of the claim. Estimates of effects of injury and life style factors are published in many forms. I will comment on the challenges I have faced, and the solutions I have adopted.
Wednesday 7th December 2016
40 years as a statistical general practitioner: The Industry Years (1974 – 1995)- watch video (Youtube)
Mr Mike Stevenson, formerly Queen's University Belfast
I finished college on 21st June 1974 and started my first post degree job in Short Bros & Harland (SB&H) just three days later. There I got involved in fortune telling. The serious stuff was trying to predict where wage and material escalation would be in three months’ time. But first I was given a serious project - to predict next Saturday’s score draws! Now SB&H more wanted me to be a management accountant rather than a statistician, but I still yearned to be practising what I had been taught at University College London. So my tenure at SB&H lasted only 19 months and on 12th January 1976 I joined local tobacco firm Gallaher Ltd, working in their Research &Development Division. At that time Gallaher employed more graduate and junior statisticians than did Queen’s University Belfast. I was initially employed as Statistician, Laboratory Statistics...........
Wednesday 11th January 2017, 1-2pm