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Modelling Observational Data in Primary care
04 November 2008 13:00 - 16:00 Tea available from 2.15pm
Keele University, Primary Care Sciences Building

http://www.esci.keele.ac.uk/kudis/_campusguide/downloads/Keele_campus_guide_bw.pdf Further details also at end of this message) Directions on how to find Arthritis Research Campaign National Primary Care Centre, Primary Care Sciences, Keele University On entering campus via the main entrance you will come to a small roundabout where you will have to turn right (2nd exit). Follow the road round and turn right at the next mini roundabout. This will bring you in front of the building housing both the Arthritis Research Campaign National Primary Care Centre and the Undergraduate Medical School. Parking spaces can be located in the car park to the left. However, please note that car parking is restricted and student parking is not permitted. If you find there is no space on this car park, then proceed further onto the campus, following the directions below. It is therefore recommended that you include sufficient time within your journey to park and walk (approximately 10minutes). Please note that car parking charges are in operation (see below) and cars which are not parked in an allocated parking bay are subject to fines (Ł50 fixed penalty to the registered keeper of the vehicle). See below for further detail on overflow parking. Primary Care Sciences have an independent entrance at the far right hand side of the building. There is an intercom system in operation. Please buzz for enquiries and a member of the admin team will allow access! Where to park (overflow) If you need to park elsewhere please head further onto campus (past the two Innovation Centres) to another small roundabout. Turn left (past the 24hr Reception Darwin Building) and then left again, where you will find a large car park. From here you should be able to cut through on a footpath by one of the Innovation Centres and join the main roadway, and head back up to the Primary Care Sciences building. For alternative car parks turn right at the small roundabout and there is a footpath leading from this access road past the Keele Nursery to the main roadway. Parking charges Parking charges are in operation on the campus (Ł1.00 for up to 4 hours and Ł2.00 for all day). Pay and display machines are sited at various points on-campus. The most convenient machine is located at the “lay-by / pull-in”, just past the second roundabout as you enter Keele campus (prior to the Primary Care Sciences roundabout). Additional pay and display machines can be found in front of the 24Hr Reception (Darwin Building) and the Leisure Centre. These are in operation from 08.30 - 17.30.

No registration is required for this event.

There is no charge for this event.

Clinically relevant evaluation of prognostic models for CHD
IAN WHITE (cambridge University)

Prognostic models constructed from observational data are widely used to predict cardiovascular disease. This talk will consider how to quantify the value of adding a new risk factor to the model, and illustrate the ideas using data from 31 cohort studies.

Propensity score models in observational studies
MILISA BLAGOJEVIC (Keele University)
The focus is on the estimation of the treatment effect in observational studies where baseline differences between treatment groups are inevitable. The method of propensity scores successfully balances the groups for observed covariates, thus removing some of the bias inherent in treatment allocation, and also avoids the issue of building a parsimonious model.

Methodological issues in using routine data to a) model risk of emergency admissions and b) determine adverse drug reactions
PETER DONNAN (Dundee University)
Encashed prescriptions in the community are easily linked to hospitalisation and death in Tayside, Scotland using a single identifier for all NHS encounters. This facilitates research in a number of areas. This talk will focus on predicting risk of emergency admissions as well as determining adverse drug reactions in the community.

Meeting Contact: GILLIAN LANCASTER (g.lancaster@lancaster.ac.uk)
Organising Group(s): Jonit meeting with The RSS Primary Health Care Study Group and Society of Acadmic Primary Care, Special Interest Epidemiology Group

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