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Start Time: 03 June 2013 16:00
End Time: 03 June 2013 18:00

Ratings in sports
at the Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX

Mark E. Glickman
Boston University School of Public Health

Rating the chess rating system
For many years, the only serious algorithm for tracking player strength over time in organized competitive games such as tournament chess was a system developed by Arpad Elo in the early 1960s.  This algorithm was adopted with minor modifications by various national and international gaming organizations throughout and 1960s and 1970s, and is still in widespread use today.  Despite its popularity, one major drawback of the Elo system is that its connections to probability models is ad hoc at best, so the resulting ratings from the system are difficult to interpret.
In the mid-1990s, I developed an approximate Bayesian algorithm that was a linearization of a reasonably standard Bayesian time series model for binary outcomes.  This new algorithm, conventionally known as the Glicko system, overcomes many of the difficulties with the Elo system.

In fact, the Elo system can be seen as a special case of the Glicko system in which parameter estimates have no posterior uncertainty.
The Glicko system is now used by many gaming organizations, such as the International Wargames Federation, the Italian Othello Federation, and the Australian Chess Federation, along with many online gaming organizations.  This talk presents the basic elements of the Elo system as implemented in the U.S., identifies a problematic aspect of the algorithm, and then presents the Glicko system and as a possible improvement over the Elo system.

Refreshments: Tea and coffee from 3.30pm
Please register by email.

Meeting organised by RSS Statistics in Sports Section                           
Meeting organiser: Luigi Colombo

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