Royal Statistical Society: "new Authority welcome - but crisis of confidence in UK statistics needs more"
 
The creation of the new UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) will not automatically cure the crisis in public confidence in official statistics, warns the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) ahead of the Authority's formal establishment next week, Tuesday, 1 April 2008.
 
The latest survey of public confidence in official statistics showed just 36 per cent of people agreed that official figures were generally accurate and only one fifth felt that figures were compiled without political interference. A European Union survey in 2007 found that the UK had a lower percentage of the population trusting official statistics than any other EU country.
 
The RSS believes that the public must be able to see clear distance between the publication of statistical information and the political comment on it, particularly in the light of the report by the Statistics Commission published on 17 March 2008 which identified a number of areas where this distance had not been observed.
 
As the UKSA will not have direct control over many official statistics the attitude of Government will be crucial, the Society says. Statistics on important subjects such as health, crime and education will continue to be produced by statisticians working within Government departments and the devolved administrations. In these cases the UKSA will only have powers of influence and comment and not of direction so Parliament must also be ready to take an active and robust approach to its duty of oversight.
 
Although the Society believes that for the vast majority of areas there are no problems in the statistical quality of data, there are instances where the inadequacy of official statistics may contribute to low levels of public confidence. Examples include the urgent need to improve statistics on population and migration, and to establish a comprehensive house price index, both of which are of great current public interest.
 
Professor David Hand, President of the Royal Statistical Society says:
 
"The Royal Statistical Society welcomes the creation of the UK Statistics Authority. We have long called for legislation to put the independence of the statistical system from Government on a statutory basis. The low levels of public confidence in official statistics make this even more important.
 
"But providing statistics that 'serve the public good', as the legislation requires, and that are trusted by the public, needs more than the UKSA. Government and Parliament also have to play their part if the goal of greater public trust is to be achieved.
 
"The RSS believes that a major problem lies with perceptions of political interference. There is much that those in government can do to reverse this, though it will mean significant changes in practice and political culture. In particular, ministers should give up or at least drastically cut the early access to official statistics that they grant themselves.
 
"Improving public confidence will not be easy. But with a willing and active partnership of the UKSA, Government and Parliament, the Society believes the task is not impossible. We wish the Authority, and the National Statistician, Karen Dunnell, well in rising to the challenge."
 
Notes:
The creation of the UKSA is a result of the Statistics and Registration Service Act passed in 2007, with the aim of improving public confidence in official statistics.
Survey results published on 17 March 2008 by the Office for National Statistics showed that, when asked if they thought that official figures are generally accurate, 36 per cent of people agreed. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/pco0308.pdf
Eurobarometer Survey no. 67 carried out by the European Commission in Spring 2007 included a question asking respondents whether or not they tended to trust official statistics in their own country. The UK had the lowest proportion (33% versus EU-27 average of 46%) replying that they tended to trust official statistics and the second highest proportion (58% versus EU-27 average of 45%) replying that they tended not to. http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb67/eb67_en.pdf     page 505.
The Statistics Commission's "Report No. 39: Releasing the Statistics - A Review of Statistical First Releases" published on 13 March 2008 sets out proposals to "highlight the separation of statistical and policy comment". http://www.statscom.org.uk/C_1255.aspx
The UK has a decentralised statistical system with many statistics produced by the relevant government department. The Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish administrations have, respectively, powers over Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish devolved statistics. The UKSA has the objective, under the Statistics and Registration Service Act, of "promoting and safeguarding the production and publication of official statistics that serve the public good". It will be the governing body for the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which produces most economic data and many population statistics. It is charged with monitoring all official statistics and reporting its concerns as well as producing a code of practice against which all statistics deemed important enough to be "national statistics" will be assessed, but it will not have direct control over statistics outside the ONS. Oversight of the system rests with Parliament to which the UKSA reports.